Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 5.591959 6.654174 7.828713 9.218986 10.814618 12.583469 14.687341
2025-03-02 3.695073 5.030427 6.675931 8.830382 11.551893 14.848709 19.114589
2025-03-09 2.682876 4.111261 6.043610 8.795769 12.552632 17.432244 24.167026
2025-03-16 1.986534 3.392342 5.460480 8.630783 13.253731 19.616582 28.872544
2025-03-23 1.658533 3.106575 5.392212 9.113647 14.835334 23.077982 35.566555
2025-03-30 1.343151 2.752478 5.132092 9.231831 15.849840 25.785654 41.396840
2025-04-06 1.088312 2.432941 4.853914 9.251123 16.674083 28.242684 47.019634
2025-04-13 0.885126 2.154040 4.584199 9.223659 17.387755 30.554496 52.563937
2025-04-20 0.809920 2.110630 4.727049 9.920760 19.357913 34.980540 61.682995
2025-04-27 0.702493 1.970142 4.656195 10.209713 20.639820 38.372826 69.373404
2025-05-04 0.620960 1.866849 4.638302 10.587444 22.101962 42.155052 77.925882
2025-05-11 0.522107 1.694249 4.442784 10.584144 22.854708 44.769035 84.687754
2025-05-18 0.415330 1.472992 4.107489 10.266425 23.015593 46.425070 90.055871
2025-05-25 0.321535 1.255434 3.735999 9.815954 22.869685 47.526429 94.560048
2025-06-01 0.265711 1.130696 3.561806 9.769560 23.520015 50.122008 101.863594
2025-06-08 0.214468 1.000316 3.343812 9.586155 23.860175 52.151094 108.262728
2025-06-15 0.197060 0.981570 3.420994 10.112994 25.754536 57.272992 120.621586
2025-06-22 0.169149 0.912358 3.341725 10.241756 26.788505 60.777752 130.148304
2025-06-29 0.142630 0.836851 3.227125 10.262700 27.580141 63.848771 139.019497
2025-07-06 0.119223 0.763174 3.100831 10.232646 28.248119 66.707651 147.632799
2025-07-13 0.115406 0.778214 3.260576 10.993922 30.824325 73.627149 164.474380
2025-07-20 0.103057 0.746257 3.258959 11.309273 32.368912 78.492620 177.512738
2025-07-27 0.093687 0.725192 3.290196 11.721347 34.180690 84.021652 192.126490